How will this threat impact? Susan Crawford's book is a study of one example - the lowlying, heavily populated southern US city of Charleston in South Carolina. Charleston is a fascinating place. It's a city that has been at the epicentre of US history, mostly because its geographical position meant the slave trade was centred there: about 40 percent of enslaved humans brought to the US from Africa came through Charleston's port. After the international trade in slavery was abolished, it became the centre of interal trade in enslaved people. The legacy of slavery, the centrality of the city to the Confederacy during the Civil War, and the legacy of racism and colonialism have meant that Charleston is a stunningly unequal city.
Climate change, and particularly flooding, will explode through and along the lines created by capitalism in this city - ones of race and class. As Crawford explains, Charleston's strategy for dealing with flooding exposes this directly:
The reason some breachfront homeowners, but not all, get that sand dumped on their beaches, and the reason that some portions of cities, but not all, get federal funds for building walls, is that the one rule of thumb for all these expenditurers is that they be made subject to a cost-benefit analysis. But that means the only thing that is valued is the price of the property being protected. Lower-income people, or renters, do not get protected or rescued.
"Surely," asks Crawford rhetorically, " we are interested in everyone thriving, not just those who have the highest land values." The answer is of course that no, US society does not care for all equally, nor does it have a plan for the majority of people who do not have valuable enough assets to warrant projection. In the case of Charleston almost all (but not everyone) of these people are black.
One way that we know the future will be like this is because the past and the present are already like this. The accident of history that placed the initially European settlers at this location, has also meant that the city that developed and grew up, was built on marshy, lowlying, wetlands. As the city expanded much of this was done on the waste and rubbish of the existing town. The poorest areas, again with almost an entirely black population, are built on the worst and most dangerous terrain. Unbelievably this means that some of the material supporting the roads, housing, hosptials and infrastructure is human waste, offal and rubbish. When the tides and storms come, the inevitable floods bring cholera and e-coli into the streets. Crawford uses Noaa data to explain how bad it will get:
Current (2020) numbers of flood days will double or triple by 2030 - double the eight-nine floods in 2019, the sixty-eight floods in 2020, the forty-six floods in 2021, each one of which made some roads in Charleston impassable and undermined strtures. By 2050 [Noaa] says, the number of days of more serious flooding could be five to fifteen times as great as it was in 2020.Through a combination of reportage, statistics and interviews with citizens, Crawford shows how the black community is hit worst and first by these regular floods. The second thing she demonstrates is that the authorities have done nothing to aid the people at risk, instead channelling funds and investment into reinventing Charleston as a tourist hotspot for wealthy (white) tourists who come to experience Southern "charm". This mostly seems to involve a disney style experience of seeing homes built on the profits of slavery and eating expensive seafood on areas completely isolated from the real Charleston. Black, and poor, Charlestonians are excluded from the rich areas, as racism and poverty keeps them out of the bars, clubs, restaurants and other destinations. Over the years more and more areas have been converted by buying up land from black people (or forciably relocating them) in order to further expand this tourist paradise. Little of the new builds are flood proof, protected or insurable long term. "More than 100,000 structures in Charleston are sited in FEMA's notoriously inaccurate floodplains" says Crawford. FEMA is the Federal Emergency Management Agency whose funding and activities are already seriously under attack from Trump.
This is, of course, the great tragedy. Charleston is doomed. The first people to go will be those forced out of the unprotected areas. But unless there is radical action, great parts of Charleston will simply become unsalvabable. That's why Crawford discusses the reality of "retreat" in the face of sea level rise - something that's already being discussed in low lying areas like the Netherlands, but rarely is talked about in the US.
One of the things that I really enjoyed about Crawford's book is her focus on individuals from the affected communities - people who have lived, worked and frequently campaigned for change in Charleston's black areas. They are people whose families and communities are most at risk, and ultimately they are the people who are the only force that will bring change - both in terms of a socially just solution for everyone in the city and in terms of winning a wider, more equal United States. Stacked against them however are some greedy, corrupt and powerful forces. Time and again Crawford shows how politicians and business leaders, their eyes firmly focused on wealth and tax income, take decisions that mean ignoring the threat from sea-level rise. Its hard to even speak about climate change in the US political arena today. In Charleston's its near impossible to discuss the links between race, poverty and flooding. Local politicians seem to think that a magical solution is there in the future. Actually they really think that what will happen is a major disaster that will lead to significant funding from the Federal government.
The problem is that this seems less and less likely, and Charleston has its specifics, but it is not unique. Millions of Americans live in areas threatened by floods, and in this unequal, racist and violent society many of them (most?) will be left to fund for themselves. This is why I think Crawford's book would have benefited from a closer study of other countries impacted by floods - who returned home? Who got compensation? What sort of activism was needed to win compensation? In addition I think the book could have done with a long look at the aftermath of Katrina in New Orleans. There are plenty of lessons to be learnt for Charleston's future there in terms of race and class.
I explicitly mention class in ths context because the fractures in Charleston's society don't just run through racial lines, but also class lines. It is the poorest who will be affected first by climate change - wherever they are. These same inequalities also exist through the US, even if there are differing ethnic makeups. But class also helps us understand why there's no money for certain communities. Its not just racism (though that's very important) but also a disdain for those at the bottom - the very people who have a vested interest in building a different sort of America, and have the power to change it. And, let's be honest, no one else is coming to save them. Crawford writes:
Few are talking about how America is going to get through the rapid rise in sea level that is coming. Like most other countries, we have no national plan.
Susan Crawford's detailed study of the specifics of Charleston are important for understanding what will happen to the majority of citizens in that city, and other areas globally. For many readers, particularly those outside the US, the reality of racism in the southern states even today will be extremely shocking. At certain points I was dumbfounded by the realities of what the author described. I was also inspired that despite the difficulties and the violence of the police, people protested, campaigned, formed organisations, marched and stood up. That must be the hope for the future. Otherwise, as Susan Crawford says, things are bleak:
Charleston's story reveals a general blind spot that will become more visible as at least thirteen million people are expected to have to retreat from swamped [North] American coastlines. Americans will learn, if they did not know already, that some lives count and some do not.
It's a book for everyone thinking about the climate future in an unequal and unjust society that puts profits before people.
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Glynn & Clarke - Climate Change is a Class Issue
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Nikiforuk - Tar Sands: Dirty Oil and the Future of a Continent
Sparrow - Crimes Against Nature: Capitalism and Global Heating
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